Let the Madness Begin!
The NCAA March Madness Tournament is back and the bettors will once again be looking to make some money on men’s college basketball games by analyzing and trying to pick out which teams will be the first round upset makers and which can make the Cinderella run that can make a smart bettor some big time cash!
If you want to try to find the March Madness upsets and Cinderella teams then you’ll want to stick to a few basic traits that have proven to be true most years in the past.
What Is A March Madness Cinderella Team?
First off, we need to determine the difference between a Cinderella team and simply an upset. Having a 15 seed beat a 2 seed in the tournament is a huge upset and normally after that big win that team gets knocked out in their next game. However, when an underdog wins the first two rounds and makes it into the sweet 16…you are now in Cinderella territory and it’s just a matter of time before midnight strikes and that team gets knocked out…but the fun is seeing how long that team can make a run at it.
NCAA Tournament Past History
The number one seed in the NCAA Tournament bracket is number one for a reason…they are that good! Only once in the history of the tourney has a #1 seed lost in the first round to a #16 and that was in 2018, when the #16 UMBC Retrievers stunned #1 ranked Virginia Cavaliers. Same goes for the #2 seed which has only lost 8 times in the first round ever. We all love a big upset but it rarely happens so betting the money line wouldn’t make much sense. If you truly have a feeling for an upset, simply take the underdog and the points.
Bet There Will Be A Cinderella Team…But Who?
There are first round upsets almost every year in the tourney so now you need to start looking at the percentages.
If you are looking to pick an upset in the first round, look at the 12th seed knocking off a #5 seed. In the tournament history the 12th seed has won an average of 35% of the total games making it a popular upset pick each year for both bettors and for bracket picks. It has become almost a given every year in the March Madness tournament that a 12 seed beats a 5.
Play The Hot Hand
One of the keys to picking an upset is looking to see which teams are playing hot leading into the tournament. Watching the conference tournaments in the weeks before the March Madness tourney will let you see who is hot and who is limping into the games. Usually watching Selection Sunday will also give you some hints from the analysts who watch all the games and see if they think that a team was seeded too high or too low and if that is where you can take advantage.
Be On Top Of Player Injuries Or Suspensions
Occasionally a top player will get suspended just as the tournament is about to start. It could be for academic violations or other incidents and they could be out the whole tournament or just the first round. Also injuries can hit just before the NCAA tournament and if the player is an important piece of the team, a first or second round knockout could be the upset you are looking for.
What Do The Betting Odds Say
Just because a team is selected as a higher seed in the tournament doesn’t mean they will be favored to win. If you have a 10th seed playing a 7th seed and the odds makers have the 10th seed favored to win, it may be a sign that the sharp money is betting big on the 10 seed or that the #10 seed is actually the better team but were seeded poorly. Check out the current NCAA Tournament odds from the sports books against the matchups when they are announced or before the game and check if there are any anomalies to take advantage of.
You can make a lot of money betting on upsets in the NCAA Tournament so knowing what to look for is key to making some money!