There are lots of ways to analyze a baseball game and most "sharp" bettors already have a baseball betting system in place to figure out which games are the best bets of the night. If you are new to MLB betting, we have put together our Top 10 list of Tips and Strategies to get you headed in the right direction, winning money of course.
1. Don't Just Bet Moneyline Favorites
Even the best teams in the league will lose about 40% of their regular season games. This might sounds great but consider that the favorites cost anywhere from – 140 to -300 on any given day across your best sportsbooks. This is a trap that many rookie sports betting players get into, just laying their money on the biggest moneyline favorite of the night. Instead of the moneyline look at betting the top pitchers in a team's rotation either the #1 or #2 pitcher.
Pro Betting Strategy
Look to play small favorites and home underdogs, when you have good pitchers on the mound for a bad team. While a team may suck in the standings, I trust their top pitcher to keep it close and because the team in general sucks you are more likely to get decent odds.
2. Betting The Over/Under - Check The Weather
A couple of simple weather trends to be aware of:
1) If a game is being played on a hot humid night, the balls tend to travel further and the posted Over/Under lines usually don’t account for this. Look to bet the over in this case.
2) Check the Wind! Don't need to be Al Roker to figure this one out, if the winds are blowing out expect more homeruns and if they are blowing in they will knock down high hit balls resulting in a lower scoring game. If you are betting on Chicago home games you simply must check the weather in order to make an informed bet either way.
3. Betting The Streaks
The MLB baseball season is a long, long battle that is filled with up and down winning or losing streaks respectively. If you see a team that has run a streak of wins or losses to 4 games then you may want to jump on that streak before it ends. You will lose a game at some point but if that streak runs for around 5 games or more you should be profitable by the end.
Pro Betting Strategy
Go with winning streaks over losing streaks when trying to ride the wave. I like to jump on the hot hand in baseball more then the cold one. Every team has a #1 ace so eventually their job is to end any losing streak and more often then not they do. I find winning streaks more likely to snowball upwards of 8 or more games then losing streaks do.
4. Compare Betting Lines To Find Value
If you are not aware yet not all online sports books have the same MLB odds. Each online betting site sites their own lines with their odds experts. Based on betting patterns their odds will move around and if you like a particular game, you should check out at least 2 to 3 sportsbooks to see if you gain an edge in your favour at one over the other.
Not sure which betting sites you should sign up with? Check out our Top Online Betting Sites
5. Follow Injury News and Beat Reporters
Find a good local beat reporter for each team and follow their twitter feed or news page for up to minute starting lineups and injury news that may not get reflected in the odds right away. You can sometimes catch oddsmakers sleeping when injuries hit the day of a game, especially if the injury occurs to a starting pitcher.
6. Small Profits Are Better Then Big Losses
Many betters believe that you should never take a favorite that is a -160 or higher. If you are convinced that a team will win and the odds are high, it just means that the win won’t pay out as much. But a win is a win and if you are having a bad streak, sometimes taking the easy money is well worth it, even if it's just a matter of gaining some confidence on a losing streak.
7. Avoid Parlay Betting
It’s great to hit a 4 or 5 team parlay but it is also extremely hard to pick 4 or 5 winners in any given night. If you truly want to play a parlay, only do it for a low amount and don't get sucked in by the intrigue of huge payouts, greed will kill you every time. A beginner mistake is taking a bunch of high favorites and making a 5 teamer only to have one team blow your whole ticket. You are likely better off betting the moneyline on the underdog.
8. Pitcher Usage and Fatigue
Pay attention to a teams bullpen usage. Have the starting pitchers been getting shelled? Are they bringing in relief pitchers early around the 4th or 5th inning? If a team goes on a losing streak where their starting pitchers are not lasting very long the bullpen can get depleted rather quickly or a span of 3 games. This is a good time to bounce on the other team and bet against them.
Pro Betting Strategy
Check a teams schedule on a weekly basis. Are they on a long home stretch, are they travelling long distances on the west coast? These little nuances can be the difference between wins and loses for not only the team but your bankroll.
9. Home Field Advantage
Home field advantage is still there and teams playing at home rarely get swept in a 3 or 4 game series. Keep track of the previous few day’s scores and if a team at home has lost the first two games of a series, there could be a good opportunity for a bet on that third or 4th game taking the home team to avoid a sweep.
10. Coors Field Betting
The stadium were balls fly out like rockets. Coors field is well known for been a hitters park due to the thin air so even the best pitchers in the league can have troubles keeping the score down there. We rarely bet unders at Coors even though the lines are well adjusted to the high side. Too many games end up with ridiculous high scores that I don't care how high the O/U is, too risky for my liking.